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?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??. ?? 1964? ?? ???? ???? ??? ???? ????. 1973?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????? ???? ????. ?? ?????? ?????, ??? 4?? ?? ???? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?? ???. ?? ?? ??? ??, ??, ?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ????. ??? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ???? ? ??? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???. 1964? 35? ???? ??? ?????(GDP)? 2018? 1?7205? ??(? 1992? ?)? ????? ????. ?? ??? ?? ???? ?? 70%? ???, ??? ???(K-Pop) ??? ? ??? ???? ??. 1973? ??? ??? ?? ?? ?? ????? ? ??? ??, ??, ??-??(??? LG)? ??? ???? ? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???.
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? ??? ?? ??? ???? 2120? ??? ??? ?????? ??. ?? ? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??. ??, ?? 1973? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ???? ???, ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??. ??, ??? ??? ????. ???? ?? C. ???? ?? ???? “??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ?”??. ???? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ????. 1964? ???? ???? ??, ?? ??, ?? ??? ??, ???? ??? ????, ? ??? ?????. ??? ?? ?? ?? ??, ??? ?? ??, ?? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??? ???.
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A Place in the Sun for Korea in 2120 (by Mun Young Choi)
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A Place in the Sun for Korea in 2120 (by Mun Young Choi)
I‘m honored to have been asked to write an article detailing my thoughts on what the world would be like in 2120, with an emphasis on Korea, to mark the 100th Anniversary of Dong A ILBO.This is truly an historic moment to reflect on the progress made by Korea during the past century. DongA ILBO has played a critical role in that progress, beginning with supporting the resistance movement against Japanese occupation and standing up for the principles of the free press.The efforts of the men and women of Dong A ILBO havehelped lead to the vibrant democracy enjoyed in Korea.
To begin with a bit about my background, I was born in 1964 in Buk Ahyeon Dong next to Han Sung High School. I immigrated with my family in 1973, eventually settling in Chicago, IL. My professional career has been spent in higher education and I now serve as the President of the University of Missouri System that comprises four public research universities. I’ve observed the progress made by Korea in economic, educational and cultural development. However, I never imagined that the poor country that I left behind would become such a juggernaut. In 1964, Korea‘s GDP was $3.5B USD. In 2018, the GDP is $1,720.5B USD,a staggering increase. The national university enrollment rate has grown to nearly 70% and the phenomenon known as K-Pop has spread to the entire world. No one in Korea let alone in the United States would have dreamed in 1973 that Samsung, Hyundai and Lucky Goldstar would be international name-brands!
There are few countries, if any, in the world that can match these transformations. The resilience, dedication to hard work, steadfast focus on education, and self-sacrifice made possible this transformation, from a destitute colony of the Japanese Empire through years of internecine conflict in World War II and the Korean War to a global economic and cultural powerhouse. These are the embodiment of the Confucian values that stood at Korea’s core. As historian Bruce Cumings wrote in his excellent book ‘Korea’s Place in the Sun‘, Confucianism is “often said to be a conservative philosophy, stressing tradition, veneration of a past golden age, careful attention to the performance of ritual, disdain for material things, commerce, and the remaking of nature, obedience to superiors, and a preference for relatively frozen social hierarchies.” As much as these were necessary attributes for weathering the storms of the 20th century, in order to prosper in a dynamic and globalized economy of the future, new approaches will be needed.
The purpose of this essay is to predict the future and to imagine what Korea would be like in 2120. I begin this essay with a few caveats. First, I left Korea in 1973 and spent most of my life in the United States and have followed the developments in Korea only as an outside observer. Second, predictions are a dangerous business. In the words of the futurist Arthur C. Clarke, “trying to predict the future is discouraging, hazardous occupation.” Let’s take a look back at how predictions have fared when the light of hindsight is shone upon them. In 1964, Clarke predicted the development of geostationary satellites, remote surgery, personalized advertisements and the internet, all of which came into being. But, being human and with human failings, there were many predictions that he got wrong including the end of coal as a fuel source, destruction of all nuclear weapons and end of professional criminals, etc.
Recognizing my own deficiencies in the prediction business, I instead turn to experts to forecast the future in 2100. A recent article in the New York Post based on interviews with 300 top scientists madethe following predictionsfor the year 2100:
oInternet will be in your contact lens
oComputers, cellphones, watches, etc. will all disappear
oOur cars will be fully-driverless and will finally be able to fly!
oDoctors will be able to grow ‘spare parts’
oHuman life span can be extended indefinitely by replacing ‘worn out parts’
oMolecular ‘smart bombs’ will eradicate cancer cells and other diseases
oTourists will travel throughout solar system using space elevators
Wow! The world that is described by these predictions will be incredible but there are also many worrying areas of concerns. For example, what are the social-cultural-ethical implications of growing spare body parts? Will there be a ‘divide’ between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ when it comes to accessing the technologies to extend one‘s life? With big data looming in the background to predict (and perhaps to alter or prevent) our every move and every thought, will an omnipresent state rise like the one described in George Orwell’s 1984? With the advent of advanced analytics and optimization, what will bethe impact on creativity and individualism? These are all questions that need to be addressed in order to create a society that values humanism.
But what technologies will enable this brave new world? We are currently in the age of the 4thindustrial revolution where cyber-physical systems reign supreme. We live in a world where transactions that are completed by centralized repositories will be replaced by decentralized blockchains; where buttons on interfaces are replaced by voice, gestures and thought; where decision-making by analyzing data and spreadsheets is replaced by artificial intelligence and mobility using drivers are replaced by autonomous systems. According to Klaus Schwab of the WorldEconomic Forum, the implementation of these technologies will result in newer materials for manufacturing and biomedical applications, advanced automated machines in the manufacturing and service sectors, bottom-up fabrication at scales from the nano to the macro, and sensors, as well as decision-science and ethical approaches for artificial intelligence. In the biological realm, all individuals will have digital copies of their genome in the cloud for ready access.Advanced analytics will harvest the ‘lakes of data’to provide personalized prevention and treatment based on individual genetics, environment and lifestyle.
In many ways, the world of 2100 can be an individualized society with distributed generation of energy using renewable resources that are available locally distributed farming using hydroponics and vertical farming just-in-time and print-on-demand protein sourcesand distributed platforms for matching supply and demand using the sharing model. Such levels of individualism and decentralization can usher in greater sense of self-reliance, autonomy and less needfor traditional institutions.For example, what need will patients have for doctors when they can understand their own diseases, access all of the clinical studies, order the specific treatments and parts for replacement and implement them using a personal robot? What need will students have for professors to confer knowledge when the vast universe of knowledge can be downloaded using sharing platforms on any topic, at anywhere, at any time? Similar hypothetical ponderings can be used for a whole host of currently-critical professions.
Pondering the new world order will requireserious reflections on our current ethical principles and accordinglysocietalnorms will need to change. In a report by Harvard bioethicist Dr. Mildred Solomon, she asks if certain technologies should be developed in the first place and, if it is implemented, who will monitor it and how?TheChinese biologist who made the first gene-edited baby to be impervious to the AIDS virus is a case in point. That scientist has been sentenced to three years‘ imprisonment by the Chinese government. How about cloning? Cloning of humans is prohibited by all nations but cloning of animals has become widespread. Who will determine what’s ethical and what‘s not? How will this determination be made?
Now, let me focus specifically on Korea.
I believe that Korea will enjoy its “Place in the Sun”. I believe that Korea will be unified and that thereign of fascism and the long shadow of terror it has cast on the Korean people will be lifted by 2120. I believe that Korea will continue to be an economic powerhouse that will compete in every sector of business that the 4th and the 5thindustrial revolution will portend. I believe that Korea will be a country that respects its traditions while seeking new truths by exploring diverse perspectives. These predictions can only come true if Koreans of the present address the systemic challenges that confront them.
According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (link http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/korea/), Korea performs very well in terms of availability of housing, civic engagement, education, and personal security. However, there is much more work to do in the areas of economic disparity, personal well-being, environmental quality and work-life balance. For example, the gap between the richest and poorest among Koreans is considerable,with the highest 20% of the population earning more than 5 times as much as the lowest 20%. The level of particulate pollution in Korea is the highest among OECD countries and Koreans feel less satisfied with their lives compared to their OECD counterparts.
According to the World Economic Forum, Korea only ranks 25th among countries in its preparedness for the 4th industrial revolution. In a Hyundai Research Institute report, nearly 50% of the Korean companies surveyed indicated that are not adequately prepared for the 4thindustrial revolution. Central to the 4th industrial revolution are new ways of thinking using decentralized platforms, internet of things, and decision-making supported by artificial intelligence. Many countries have already begun taking new approaches to harness these powers including China with the ’Made in China 2025‘program, Japan with the ’Super Smart Society‘ program, and Germany with the ’Industry 4.0‘ program. Korea, meanwhile, has focused on manufacturing with ’Manufacturing Innovation 3.0‘. Will this be enough for Korea and is the vision for Korea comprehensive, bold and sustainable enough to compete with other nations?The fact that Korean firms are less connected with global innovation networks indicates growing concerns about the ability to adapt to new business paradigms. For example, the percentage of large and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) involved in product or process innovation is lower than 2% - the lowest among OECD countries.
There are other challenges that Korea faces.The United Nations predict that the population of Korea will be reduced from 51 million today to less than 30 million by 2100. This will be one of the fastest declines among OECD countries and is a troubling statistic.There have been dramatic transformations in social expectations and norms that includes the reduction in the rates of marriages among young people (ages 25 to 29) from 90% in 1970 to 23% in 2015. This trend is attributed to the Sampo Phenomena formed by those who reject relationships, marriage and children. As a result, the birth rate stands at 1.1 children per woman in Korea, compared to the global average of 2.5. Consider that the replacement rate to maintain a population is 2.1. Korea’s birth rate ranks as the lowest in the world with Japan as a close second at 1.2.
There are many societal reasons for these trends. The burdens on married women in Korea are manifold. In many waysin Korean society, woman are expected to focus on her family responsibilities at the cost of their personal and professional goals. As a result, the percentage of women aged 30 to 34 who remain single increased from 1.4% in 1970 to 30% in 2010. Korean men also do not contribute to family or household responsibilities. In an OECD study, Korean men were found to spend very little time on unpaid domestic work, including house cleaning, child care,shopping, etc. In fact, compared to almost 4 hours for Korean women, Korean men spend only 45 minutes a day on such activities,on average the second lowest amount of timein the world. This is an unfair practice that negatively affects Korean women.
When women do manage to join the workforce, they face significant occupational barriers such as exclusion, lack ofaccess to high-paying jobs, and the gender wage gap.Some examples of these exclusion are reflected in the percentage of women in ministerial positions in central governments. The latest OECD report indicates that only 9.1% of ministers in central government of Korea are women which is the 3rd lowest behind Hungary and Turkey. While women participate in the workforce at a rateof 60%, many of them are concentrated in lower-paying, non-regular jobs. Moreover, the gender wage gap of 36% for Korea is the highest among OECD countries; compare that to the OECD average of 14%.
Life expectancy of Koreans will increase to 92 by the end of the 21st century. This will result in a significant aging of the overall population. According to the OECD only 17% of the population in Korea was over the age of 65 in 2015. By 2050, that percentage can be over 70%! These statistics are troubling on so many fronts, especially when it comes to poverty. National averages for poverty in 2015 was around 13% slightly higher than the OECD average of 12% but a closer look at the data based on age-groups indicate serious problems. The poverty rates for ages below 18, 18-25, 26-40, 41-50 all indicate poverty levels that are less than the corresponding OECD average levels. But for age groups 51-65 and over 65, the poverty rates are higher. In fact, Korea has the highest rate of poverty among people ages 65 years or older, which stands at a staggering 44% according to the OECD. Japan‘s corresponding value is at 18%. How can this be and how can it be allowed to continue? I recognized Korea as a country that valued and supported the elderly with inherent respect. The dramatic changes to the institutions caused by the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 have had their role. But, reduced social cohesion and the role of the family unit have played a big role as well. For example, between 1984 and 1998, the percentage of adult working children living with their parents increased bya factor of 2 to 47%. Under such situations combined with low levels of support for pensioners and increasing life expectancy, Koreans must reconsider increasing mandatory retirement age. This is a social and ethical issue that must be addressed quickly to avoid the catastrophic consequences that it may catalyze.
The advances made by theKorean educational system is truly inspirational. With the Confucian imperative for education to transform society, Korean elementary, secondary and tertiary institutions have made tremendous progress. Korea is one of the highest performing OECD countries in reading, mathematics, and science standardized tests. Korean college enrollment rate for eligible students is approximately 68%,compared to 40% in the United States. Korean students pursuing doctorate and other advanced studies in the United States, Europe,and Australia are renowned for their diligence and hard work. But, despite accolades in the aggregate, there are cracks in the foundation.
There is a persistent belief that while Korean students perform well in regards to standardized testing, the educational system instills a focus on rote memorization and competitiveness butnot the creativity and innovation needed for success in the future. In a Global Entrepreneurship Monitor study from 2013, Korean’s aged 18 to 34 lagged far behind their OECD counterparts when asked if they see good opportunities for starting a business in the near future or if they believe they have the required knowledge or skills to start a business. As a result, the involvement of this group of young people in early-stage entrepreneurial activity was less than half of the OECD counterparts.
Not only is the cost of ‘Hag Won’ enrollment substantial at times reflecting 30% of the monthly income of parents the amount of time spent for these tutoring session is staggering. It‘s not unusual for a typical high-school student to spend 16 hours per day studying, attending ’Hag Won‘, and doing homework. The percentage of Korean students studying over 60 hours per week stands at 23% which dwarfs the OECD average of 13%. The immense pressures, sleep deprivation and lack of social engagement with peers have also led to high rates of suicide, the highest among OECD countries.For young people aged 9 to 24, suicidestands as the leading cause of death. Where is the opportunity for the Korean youth to explore, examine, reflect and contemplate? I’m hopeful that the Korea 2030 Commission will examine how to bestreducestressand increase creativity in the educational systemas well as reduce the favoritism and corruption in the university admissions process.
In closing, I wish the very best for Korea and Koreans in the year 2120! I believe there is opportunity on the horizon for this proud nation. But, there are treacherous warning signs and immense challenges that stillneed to be addressed for a “Place in the Sun” to be secured for all Koreans.
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