? ??? ?? ???, ??? ?? ??? ???

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?? 2014? 12? 22? 10? 21?

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??? ???? ???? ???? ?? ????. ?????? ????? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ???.

22? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??? 12? 3?? ?? ????, ? ???? ?? 95?? ???(????)? 39.9%(‘?? ??’ 11.3% + ‘??? ?’ 28.6%)? 2? ?? 30%?? ????? 1?? ? ?? 0.2%p ????? ???? ???. ? ???? ???? ???? 30%?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ?????.

??? ?? ?? ???.
? ???? ?? ???? 15?(?) 39.8%? ??, 16?(?) 38.8%? ??, 17?(?)?? ?? ???? 37.8%? ?????, ???? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? 18?(?) 38.3%? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ??? 19?(?)?? 42.6%? ?????.

??? ??? ?? ??? ??·??? ???, 50? ??? 30?? ???? ? ??? ???? ? ???? ??? ????. ? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? 19?? ? ??? ?? ?? 17? ???? ?? ????, ??·??? 46.5%?? 63.9%? 17.4%p, ???? 60.6%?? 72.1%? 11.5%p, 50?? 43.3%?? 54.3%? 11.0%p ????. ? ? ??·???? 15.1%p(26.9%→42.0%), 30??? 9.3%p(18.4%→27.7%), 60??? 6.6%p(64.9%→71.5%), ????? 4.5%p(30.2%→34.7%) ?? ?? ??? ??·??? ??·??, 20?? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ????.

?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??? ???. ‘? ???? ????? ???? ??’? ????? 52.3%(‘?? ???’ 31.8% + ‘???? ?’ 20.5%)?? ??? ???? 0.2%p ????? ?? ? ???? ?? ????. ?? ????? 15?(?) 52.6%? ??, 16?(?) 54.6%, 17?(?) 55.9%? ??? ?? ? 18?(?) 54.7%? ?? 19?(?)?? ??? ?? ???? 47.3%? ?? ??? ??? ????.
????? ????? ??? ???? ?? ¤12.4%p, ‘??/???’? 7.9%? ????.

?? ?? ?? ??? ?? 15??? 19??? ??? ?? 2500?? ???? ????(CATI) ? ??????(ARS) ???? ????(50%)? ????(50%) ?? RDD ???? ???? ????? 95% ?????? ±2.0%p??.

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