美????? “??? ???? 90% ??”

????
?? 2012? 11? 7? 11? 36?

???: ?

???: ?

?? ????? ??…???? ??? ???

6?(????) ??? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???(??)? ?? ??? 90%? ???? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??.

? ?? ????? ??????? ??? 5?? 6? ??? 16? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???? 8??? 1-4%??? ???. ?? ? ?? ??? ??? ??? 2??? 1%??? ??? ??? ????? 6?? ?????.

??? ??? ▲??????/ABC??(50% ? 47%) ▲???????/NBC??(48% ? 47%) ▲????(48% ? 45%) ???? ?? ??? ▲????(49% ? 48%)▲??(49% ? 48%)???. ??? ▲CNN??(49%) ▲????? ????(49%) ????.

? ?? ? ????? '?? ???' ????? ?? ????? ??? 14? ??? ????(49% ??)? ??? 13?? ???? 1-6%??? ??? ???.

??? '??? ??? ??' ??????? ???? ??? 17? ? ???? ??? 7?? ??? ???. ?? ?? ??? 1-5%???, ?? 1-6%?????. ??? 3????.

???? ???(??? ? ??)? ▲????(??????? 18?) 49.2% ?45.8% ▲????(29?) 48.4% ? 47.9% ▲???? (13?) 48.7% ? 46.8% ▲??????(20?) 50.1% ? 44.2% ▲????(10?) 50.4% ? 45.8% ▲????(6?) 48.6% ? 46% ▲????(4?) 49.2% ? 46.8% ▲????(9?) 48.6% ? 46.8% ▲???????(15?) 47.3% ? 48.8%? ????.

10? ??? ? ???? 9?, ??? ??????? ????? ??? ????.

??????? ???? ??? '????? ???'? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? 48.1%, ?? 46.7%? ???? 1.4%??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? 75%, ??(???? ?? 270? ??) ??? 91%? ????.

??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?? ??? 303?, ?? 235?? ??. ???? 0.5%??? ?? ?????? ??? ?? 332?? ????.

??? ???? ????? ????????(fivethirtyeight)? 6? ?? 10? ?? ▲?? ??? ??? 90.0%, ?? 9.1% ▲???? ??? ??? 50.8%, ?? 48.3% ▲?? ???? ?? ??? 313?, ?? 225??? ????.

???? ??(269?)? ?? ??? 0.2%? ??? 26? ?? ??(0.6%)? 3?? 1? ????.

???? ????? ??? ??? ??? ? ??? 0.6%, ??? ????? ??? ??? ??? ? ??? 5.3%??. ?? ???? 0.5%??? ?? ??? ???? ??? 6.4%??.

????, ????, ??????, ???? ?? ?? ?? ???? 0.5% ???? ???? ???? ?? ? ??.

????? ?? ???? ???? ??? 49.8%? ?? ? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?????.

???? ???? ??? ▲???? 91% ▲???? 79% ▲???? 97% ▲?????? 99% ▲???? 80% ▲???? 84% ▲???? 85% ▲??? 93% ▲??? 99% ▲???? 100% ???.

??? ??? ? ???????(74%)??? ??? ??.

????? 50% ????.

????????(???? 538?? ??? ??)? ?? ????? ??? ?? ??.?????.???? ? ??? ?? ?? ?? ????(?????)? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ????.

?? ????? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????? '?????????(RCP)'? ??? 6? ?? ?? ???? ??? 48.8%, ?? 48.1%? ??? 0.7%?????.

??? 11?? ??? ???? ????(1.5%??? ?)? ???????(3%??? ?)? ??? 9??? 0.3(????)-4.2(????)%??? ???.

RCP? ???? ?? ??? 201?, ?? 191??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? 303?, ?? 235??? ????.

<????>