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Moon Got Just Enough in Pyongyang to Keep ‘Moonshine’ Alive
Last month in this space, I argued that South Korean President Moon Jae-In on his trip to Pyongyang needed to extract enough from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to keep the Americans vested in the d¤tente process with North Korea. Skepticism on the US side is high.

US President Donald Trump prevented US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from going to Pyongyang late in the summer because of North Korean foot-dragging. Trump‘s closest national security advisors ¤ such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis, National Security Advisor John Bolton, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Vice-President Mike Pence ¤ are all hawks on North Korea. All are deeply skeptical of North Korean intentions. All oppose, for example, granting North Korea a peace treaty without substantial further concessions.

The commitment of Trump himself to a North Korean peace process varies wildly with his mood and political fortunes. Trump is grossly uninformed about Korea, routinely mischaracterizing the nature of the US commitment here, the numbers of US military in country, the approach of the Obama administration to the North Korea problem, and so on. Trump’s primary interest, as seen in his behavior at the Singapore summit, is garnering media attention and accolades. Meeting Kim was something former US President Obama had not done, so it instinctively appealed to Trump. But this sort of grandstanding is uninformed by any real policy knowledge. Trump was so ignorant of the relevant issues at Singapore that he was compelled to show Kim a bizarre pseudo-movie trailer about North Korean modernization. Trump himself was unable to make this argument himself to Kim, because he simply does not care, nor cares to learn.

In short, the American response to Moon‘s d¤tente is divided, inconsistent, and heavily driven by Trump’s ego needs. To keep the process moving, Moon needed to show the Americans some progress on nuclear and missile-related issues. Moon‘s wide-front d¤tente ¤ inter-Korean cultural engagement, mixed sporting teams, rail and agricultural cooperation, and so on ¤ interests the US side less. The Americans find it highly unlikely North Korea will change internally in a meaningful way. To the Trump people, Moon’s efforts are quixotic, probably irrelevant, and likely to fail. What really matters to the Americans is arms control, specifically on nuclear weapons and missiles. Can Moon pull from the North Korea a meaningful, verifiable denuclearization and/or de-missilization commitment?

And that seems to have occurred - just enough ¤ at Pyongyang to keep the Americans from walking away from the process. Kim appears to have agreed to dismantle a launch pad and missile engine site. He also hinted at allowing inspectors into North Korea to verify these steps. This was just enough to buy off hawks who think North Korea is negotiating in bad faith.

Moon also coupled these minor steps with intensive flattery of Trump personally. Moon is increasingly aware that Trump does not understand or care much about Korean issues, but he most certainly cares for ego-stroking. In the same way that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave Trump a gold-plated golf club, so Moon has realized that praising Trump ¤ however ridiculously ¤ keeps Trump tied to the process. Moon started the laughable notion that Trump deserves a Nobel Prize earlier this year, and he and his foreign minister have kept up a steady drum beat of false praise since then. Last week, Moon said Trump was “the only person who can solve this problem.” That is preposterously inaccurate; Moon know this, as does the rest of the world; but it serves a purpose. Much of the US national security community is skeptical of this year‘s d¤tente, but if Moon can hold Trump’s attention through flattery, he avoids an open breach with the Americans. This is smart, if manipulative, politics.

But while Pyongyang kept the process alive, it did not bring any large steps from the North Korean side. The site closures are things the North has promised before and may not be that valuable anymore. As test sites, they may not be that necessary for mature North Korean nuclear and missile programs.

More valuable in my opinion was the new mention of inspectors. North Korea has not agreed to inspectors in the past. As a very closed society, it has always fought against even the most basic foreign oversight. Even during the famine years, the North rejected food aid which came coupled with foreign inspection. We also know from the experience of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Iraq before the 2003 war, that inspection regimes can be extremely irritating to host countries. If the Iraq inspections were bitter and routinely contested, one can only imagine what they would be like in North Korea. This strikes me as a major move ¤ if the North follows through.

But beyond this, most of the big issues are still unresolved. Moon has argued that this year‘s d¤tente is different than the Six Party Talks, because it is taking place at the head of state level. But so far, Moon has precious little to show for three South Korean and one US summit with Kim. No serious discussion of denuclearization can take place without a list of North Korean facilities, weapons, and fissile material. Experts have belabored this notion all year, and the North still has not moved at all on this. And that is just the absolute minimum if the North is genuinely committed to denuclearization, as Moon keeps saying it is.

Once the list is provided, we can then proceed to the real issue ¤ freezing or, ideally, rolling back, the North Korean nuclear and missile programs. Yet to date, there has been no real progress on this. The North has spoken in vagueries at best. After nine months and four summits, the nuclear missile negotiation has still not really even started. The Pyongyang Declaration has once again kicked that can down the road. Perhaps Kim will finally deal on this issue at the next Trump-Kim summit, but at this point, there is little to suggest that.

Therefore the best move at this point is probably to push this process down to the expert level. Let the engineers, lawyers, soldiers, and diplomats pound out some agreed language on the issues that really matter. Then have another summit - for summit diplomacy has not, contra Moon, returned great results so far. Rather, tt has been great TV, with lots of symbolism ¤ and for Kim, who comes from an isolated, loathed, sanctioned regime, all this attention has been a reward in itself. It is time to extract a price for all that legitimation of Kim’s tyrant regime ¤ either he start bargaining seriously on nuclear missiles, or the summits are halted in favor of working level talks.


Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University. More of his work may be found at his website,AsianSecurityBlog.wordpress.com.