????DB??? ???? ???? ???? 31.0%? ????. ???? ?? ?? ? ???? ??? ??? ???.
28? ???? ???? ????? 25?~27? 19? ?? ??? 1522?? ???? ? ???? ? ?? ??? ????? ????.
? ??? ???? ?? ????(???)? 31.0%(?? ?? 8.7%, ??? ? 22.3%)? ????. ?? ??? ?? 0.4%p ??? ???, ?? ? ???? ?? ??? ???.
‘????? ???? ??’? ????? ??? ?? 0.5%p ??? 63.0%(?? ??? 43.3%, ???? ? 19.7%)??, ‘??/???’? 0.9%p ??? 6.0%? ????.
?? ????? ??·???? ???? ??? ?? 26??? ????? 29.6%(???? 65.0%)? ??? ??? 1? 27?? ???? ?? ? ?? ???(29.7%)? ????.
? 40%? ???? 50?? ????(39.3%)? 30%?? ??? ?, 60? ??(53.3%)??? ????? 2.9%p ??? ?, ???? ????(55.9%) ?? 60%? ???? 50%? ???? ??? ?? ??? ? ??.
????? ? ??? ??? ??? ???? ‘?????’ ????? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ?? ????????? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ???? ????.
?? ?? ???? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? 3?? ???? ? ??? ??? ?? ??? ????.
????(28.7%)? 0.6%p ????? ???? 1? ??? ????. ???(28.6%)? 2.9%p ??? 2?? ????, ????(25.2%)? 1.5%p ????.
?? ????? ????(CATI) ? ????(ARS) ???? ????(60%)? ????(40%) ?? ????(RDD) ???? ????, ???? 5.0%?. ????? 95%, ?????? ±2.5%p??. ????? 2? ?? ???(two-day rolling time-series) ???? 25? 1016?, 26? 1014?, 27? 1013?? ???? ??, ???? 25? 4.7%, 26? 4.8%, 27? 4.6%?. ????? 3?? ?? 95%? ?????? ?? ±3.1%p?? ????? ???? ??? ????? ????.
??? ???? ?? hwangjh@donga.com
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